SCORE2 Cardiovascular Risk Calculator

SCORE2 and its companion model SCORE2-OP ("older persons") estimate the 10-year probability of a fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event (heart attack, stroke) from six inputs: age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol. Under age 70 the calculator applies SCORE2; from age 70 it switches to SCORE2-OP, derived and validated separately in an older population. Both apply a second step, region recalibration, that adjusts the raw estimate to one of four European CVD-mortality bands — low, moderate, high or very high — since baseline cardiovascular risk varies substantially across countries. Italy falls in the low-risk band (with Malta, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia and Sweden), set as the default here.

Both models were fitted on population data that included some people with diabetes for calibration purposes, but neither is intended for people who already have diabetes or known cardiovascular disease — dedicated models exist for those groups, and this calculator does not ask for a diabetes input.

The result is a percentage: your estimated chance of a fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in the next 10 years. It is then placed in a risk category — low, moderate or high — using age-specific thresholds that are different from the region band used to calibrate the number itself:

A younger person and an older person with the same risk category can have quite different percentages — the thresholds rise with age because a given percentage means something different at 45 than at 75.

SCORE2/SCORE2-OP is validated for adults aged 40 to 89 without a prior cardiovascular event and without diabetes. Outside that range the calculator still returns a number — the underlying equation doesn't break — but flags it as outside the validated age range, since accuracy there hasn't been established the same way.

People who already have cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease or familial hypercholesterolaemia are generally considered high or very-high risk already, regardless of what a general-population score like this would return; a clinician uses dedicated pathways for those cases.

• Lifestyle: not smoking, regular physical activity, a diet low in saturated fat and salt, and maintaining a healthy weight all lower cardiovascular risk factors.
• Follow-up: a moderate or high result is a prompt to discuss blood pressure and lipid management with a doctor, not a diagnosis on its own.

Two of the inputs here — cholesterol and HDL — are the same values used by the LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol calculators, and cardiovascular risk clusters with the criteria checked by the metabolic syndrome tool.

• This is a population-based estimate, not a diagnosis — it does not account for family history, lipoprotein(a), imaging findings or other factors a clinician may weigh.
• The region band is a country-level average; it does not replace individual risk factors, and a person's true risk can sit above or below their region's typical pattern.
• Not intended for people with existing cardiovascular disease, diabetes or familial hypercholesterolaemia, who need a different risk pathway.

Always discuss an elevated result with a doctor before making treatment decisions.